• Cyclone Gabrielle is heading towards Aotearoa and the first effects are expected to be felt in Northland on Sunday.
• The states of emergency in Thames-Coromandel and in Auckland have been extended.
• MetService is predicting severe weather for the upper North Island from Monday, but Gabrielle’s path and specific effects are still yet to be confirmed.
• Gabrielle is expected to reach category 3 severe tropical cyclone status by 1pm Friday as it moves towards Aotearoa.

Cyclone Gabrielle is forecast to turn into a category 3 severe tropical cyclone by 1pm on Friday, according to Australian meteorologists.

Gabrielle is currently a category 2 off the coast of Queensland in the Coral Sea and is moving southeast towards New Zealand.

It is expected to make landfall early on Tuesday on the eastern side of Northland – but bad weather will start from Sunday, according to experts.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology says Gabrielle’s wind speed is currently 110kph with wind gusts to 155kph.

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The bureau expects Gabrielle to intensify into a category 3 storm at 1pm NZ time as it builds energy moving towards the Tasman Sea.

According to MetService, a category 2 tropical cyclone has an average wind speed of between 89kph and 117kph.

A category 3 tropical cyclone, with the upgraded “severe” designation, has an average wind speed of between 119kph and 157kph.

A heavy rain watch is in place for Coromandel, along with Northland and Auckland north of Whangaparāoa, from Sunday morning through to midnight Tuesday.

According to MetService forecaster Aidan Pyselman, while the bad weather would start late on the weekend, the cyclone wouldn’t actually make landfall until early Tuesday.

It would touch down on the eastern part of Northland, before heading down into Auckland, he said.

The cyclone was expected to then roll down the country through Tuesday and into Wednesday, heading east, Pyselman said.

“It’ll then drop down into Hawke’s Bay.”

It was still a few days out and models might change, he said.

According to MetService, between 200-300mm of rain could fall in Coromandel in the 24 hours from Monday morning to Tuesday morning.

Auckland and Northland could see between 150-200mm of rain in the same period.

A strong wind watch is also in force for Northland and Auckland north of Whangaparāoa from 6am Sunday to midnight Tuesday.

Auckland south of Whangaparāoa and Coromandel Peninsula have a strong wind watch from 6am Monday to midnight Tuesday.

“If the cyclone continues on its current path towards the north of Aotearoa New Zealand, we can expect this to be an extreme weather event with widespread damage,” MetService’s head of weather communication Lisa Murray said.

“Those areas that are already vulnerable following last week’s weather are expected to see more rain, strong wind, heavy swells and coastal inundation which will exacerbate the situation.”

On Thursday night, Auckland mayor Wayne Brown extended the region’s state of emergency for another week ahead of Gabrielle making land.

The state of emergency has been in place since January 27, when torrential rain caused devastating flooding, killing four people.

“My decision reflects the seriousness of the current and potential situation and our response,” Brown said on Thursday afternoon.

“After what Aucklanders have experienced since Friday 27 January, and with our region waterlogged, it will be a very serious situation if the current weather forecasts eventuate.”

People have been urged to get three days of supplies together in case they are stuck at home due to flooding and slips.

Twenty-one evacuation centres will open in Auckland in case of mass displacement.