• Cyclone Gabrielle is heading towards Aotearoa and the first effects are expected to be felt in Northland on Sunday.
• The states of emergency in Thames-Coromandel and in Auckland have been extended.
• MetService is predicting severe weather for the upper North Island from Monday, but Gabrielle’s path and specific effects are still yet to be confirmed.
• Gabrielle has reached a category 3 severe tropical cyclone status as it moves towards Aotearoa.

• E haramai ana a Huripari Gabrielle ki Aotearoa, ā, e kawatau nei ka pāngia tuatahitia mai hei ā Hanarei i Te Tai Tokerau.
• Kua whakatōroa ake ngā whakataunga ohotata ki Pārāwai, Te Tara o te Ika, me Tāmaki Makaurau.
• Hei tā te matapae a Te Ratonga Tirorangi ka hūkerikeri te huarere ki te Puku me te Hiku o Te Ika hei ā Mane, engari kāore anō kia āmiki whakatauria te huarahi ka takahia e Gabrielle.
• Kua eke a Gabrielle ki te taumata 3, arā te huripari pārūrū kino, i tōna kokenga mai ki Aotearoa.

Cyclone Gabrielle has intensified into a category 3 severe tropical cyclone and has tracked back slightly west, towards Auckland – but the Coromandel will still be hit the worst, forecasters say.

On Friday, Gabrielle is off the coast of Queensland in the Coral Sea and is moving southeast towards Aotearoa.

It is expected to make landfall early on Tuesday on the eastern side of Northland – but bad weather will start from Sunday, according to experts.

The latest Niwa forecast shows Gabrielle is most likely to track down the eastern side of New Zealand.

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MetService Forecaster Aidan Pyselman said while the Coromandel was still likely to be hit the hardest, the latest models showed the cyclone was headed slightly further west, sliding closer to Auckland.

The average wind speeds could be around 90kph, with gusts of around 130-140kph, he said, but it was unclear where the strongest wind would be experienced.

Over the past 24 hours each model has had slight changes, Pyselman said, so the cyclone’s path could change even more before it hits New Zealand.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said on Friday morning that Gabrielle’s wind speed was 120kph with wind gusts to 165kph.

The bureau made the call to upgrade Gabrielle into a category 3 storm off data received at 5am Australian eastern time, or 8am NZ time.

A category 3 tropical cyclone, with the upgraded “severe” designation, has an average wind speed of between 119kph and 157kph.

It is moving southeast towards NZ at 31kph.

Gabrielle is not expected to reach category 4 status.

A heavy rain watch is in place for Northland and Auckland from 1am Sunday, with MetService also implementing heavy rain watches for Coromandel and Gisborne later in the day.

Between 200-400mm of rain could fall in Coromandel in the 53 hours from Sunday morning to Tuesday afternoon.

A strong wind watch is also in place for Northland, Auckland and Coromandel between noon Sunday and midnight Tuesday.

MetService said all its watches could potentially be upgraded to warnings, a higher severity level, in the coming days.

On Thursday night, Auckland mayor Wayne Brown extended the region’s state of emergency for another week ahead of Gabrielle making land.

The state of emergency has been in place since January 27, when torrential rain caused devastating flooding, killing four people.

People have been urged to get three days of supplies together in case they are stuck at home due to flooding and slips.

Twenty-one evacuation centres will open in Auckland in case of mass displacement.